Maine
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 59% of the vote in Maine. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Maine, Biden wins 67% and Trump wins 33%.
2020
Updated April 2, 2020.
Who will win the electoral college?
Biden is projected to win between 232 and 366 electoral college votes. Trump is projected to win between 171 and 306 electoral college votes. In 25000 simulations of the presidential election from the perspective of April 2, 2020, Biden wins 76% and Trump wins 23%.
Who will win each state?
Note that uncertainties at this time are due to a) close races and/or b) few polls. As more polls become available and election day nears, error bars should shrink and the range of reasonable potential outcomes should narrow.
Alabama
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 45% of the vote in Alabama. Trump is projected to receive between 50% and 70%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Alabama, Biden wins 5% and Trump wins 95%.
Alaska
Biden is projected to receive between 24% and 48% of the vote in Alaska. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 63%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Alaska, Biden wins 20% and Trump wins 80%.
Arizona
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 54% of the vote in Arizona. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 52%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Arizona, Biden wins 57% and Trump wins 43%.
Arkansas
Biden is projected to receive between 20% and 44% of the vote in Arkansas. Trump is projected to receive between 47% and 70%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Arkansas, Biden wins 6% and Trump wins 94%.
California
Biden is projected to receive between 53% and 67% of the vote in California. Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 38%. In 25000 simulations of the election in California, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.
Colorado
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 57% of the vote in Colorado. Trump is projected to receive between 31% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Colorado, Biden wins 60% and Trump wins 40%.
Connecticut
Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 62% of the vote in Connecticut. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 46%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Connecticut, Biden wins 88% and Trump wins 12%.
Delaware
Biden is projected to receive between 42% and 64% of the vote in Delaware. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 51%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Delaware, Biden wins 80% and Trump wins 20%.
District of Columbia
Biden is projected to receive between 76% and 95% of the vote in District of Columbia. Trump is projected to receive between 1% and 15%. In 25000 simulations of the election in District of Columbia, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.
Florida
Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 56% of the vote in Florida. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 55%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Florida, Biden wins 54% and Trump wins 46%.
Georgia
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 53% of the vote in Georgia. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 60%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Georgia, Biden wins 29% and Trump wins 71%.
Hawaii
Biden is projected to receive between 48% and 72% of the vote in Hawaii. Trump is projected to receive between 17% and 40%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Hawaii, Biden wins 97% and Trump wins 3%.
Idaho
Biden is projected to receive between 16% and 39% of the vote in Idaho. Trump is projected to receive between 47% and 70%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Idaho, Biden wins 3% and Trump wins 97%.
Illinois
Biden is projected to receive between 42% and 66% of the vote in Illinois. Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 49%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Illinois, Biden wins 84% and Trump wins 16%.
Indiana
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 48% of the vote in Indiana. Trump is projected to receive between 43% and 67%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Indiana, Biden wins 13% and Trump wins 87%.
Iowa
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 52% of the vote in Iowa. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 59%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Iowa, Biden wins 30% and Trump wins 70%.
Kansas
Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 48% of the vote in Kansas. Trump is projected to receive between 45% and 63%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Kansas, Biden wins 13% and Trump wins 87%.
Kentucky
Biden is projected to receive between 19% and 42% of the vote in Kentucky. Trump is projected to receive between 49% and 72%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Kentucky, Biden wins 4% and Trump wins 96%.
Louisiana
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 48% of the vote in Louisiana. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 67%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Louisiana, Biden wins 12% and Trump wins 87%.
Maryland
Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 71% of the vote in Maryland. Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 43%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Maryland, Biden wins 96% and Trump wins 4%.
Massachusetts
Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 71% of the vote in Massachusetts. Trump is projected to receive between 20% and 43%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Massachusetts, Biden wins 95% and Trump wins 5%.
Michigan
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 54% of the vote in Michigan. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 51%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Michigan, Biden wins 60% and Trump wins 40%.
Minnesota
Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 57% of the vote in Minnesota. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 56%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Minnesota, Biden wins 53% and Trump wins 46%.
Mississippi
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 48% of the vote in Mississippi. Trump is projected to receive between 47% and 67%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Mississippi, Biden wins 11% and Trump wins 89%.
Missouri
Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 48% of the vote in Missouri. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 63%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Missouri, Biden wins 14% and Trump wins 86%.
Montana
Biden is projected to receive between 23% and 44% of the vote in Montana. Trump is projected to receive between 45% and 66%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Montana, Biden wins 7% and Trump wins 92%.
Nebraska
Biden is projected to receive between 21% and 44% of the vote in Nebraska. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 70%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Nebraska, Biden wins 7% and Trump wins 93%.
Nevada
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 56% of the vote in Nevada. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 51%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Nevada, Biden wins 63% and Trump wins 36%.
New Hampshire
Biden is projected to receive between 40% and 57% of the vote in New Hampshire. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in New Hampshire, Biden wins 62% and Trump wins 38%.
New Jersey
Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 63% of the vote in New Jersey. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 47%. In 25000 simulations of the election in New Jersey, Biden wins 87% and Trump wins 12%.
New Mexico
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 59% of the vote in New Mexico. Trump is projected to receive between 31% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in New Mexico, Biden wins 66% and Trump wins 33%.
New York
Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 66% of the vote in New York. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 44%. In 25000 simulations of the election in New York, Biden wins 94% and Trump wins 6%.
North Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 40% and 55% of the vote in North Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 54%. In 25000 simulations of the election in North Carolina, Biden wins 55% and Trump wins 45%.
North Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 41% of the vote in North Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 72%. In 25000 simulations of the election in North Dakota, Biden wins 2% and Trump wins 98%.
Ohio
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 54% of the vote in Ohio. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 55%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Ohio, Biden wins 46% and Trump wins 54%.
Oklahoma
Biden is projected to receive between 21% and 39% of the vote in Oklahoma. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 72%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Oklahoma, Biden wins 1% and Trump wins 99%.
Oregon
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 62% of the vote in Oregon. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 51%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Oregon, Biden wins 75% and Trump wins 24%.
Pennsylvania
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 54% of the vote in Pennsylvania. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Pennsylvania, Biden wins 57% and Trump wins 43%.
Rhode Island
Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 65% of the vote in Rhode Island. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 50%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Rhode Island, Biden wins 80% and Trump wins 20%.
South Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 31% and 49% of the vote in South Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 60%. In 25000 simulations of the election in South Carolina, Biden wins 20% and Trump wins 80%.
South Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 19% and 42% of the vote in South Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 49% and 72%. In 25000 simulations of the election in South Dakota, Biden wins 4% and Trump wins 96%.
Tennessee
Biden is projected to receive between 24% and 45% of the vote in Tennessee. Trump is projected to receive between 49% and 70%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Tennessee, Biden wins 6% and Trump wins 94%.
Texas
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 52% of the vote in Texas. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 54%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Texas, Biden wins 40% and Trump wins 60%.
Utah
Biden is projected to receive between 21% and 39% of the vote in Utah. Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 56%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Utah, Biden wins 10% and Trump wins 90%.
Vermont
Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 67% of the vote in Vermont. Trump is projected to receive between 18% and 41%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Vermont, Biden wins 94% and Trump wins 6%.
Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 59% of the vote in Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 32% and 50%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Virginia, Biden wins 75% and Trump wins 25%.
Washington
Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 63% of the vote in Washington. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 46%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Washington, Biden wins 90% and Trump wins 10%.
West Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 16% and 37% of the vote in West Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 56% and 77%. In 25000 simulations of the election in West Virginia, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.
Wisconsin
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 54% of the vote in Wisconsin. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 53%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Wisconsin, Biden wins 54% and Trump wins 46%.
Wyoming
Biden is projected to receive between 10% and 32% of the vote in Wyoming. Trump is projected to receive between 55% and 78%. In 25000 simulations of the election in Wyoming, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.
